Are We Comparing Apples to Apples?
How is Influenza influencing the world?
It’s too soon to calculate detailed information about Covid 19. There are soooo many variables to consider.
We’d have to compare #Covid_19 to the Flu in a different way to make an accurate comparison, meaning the first year of Covid-19 has to be compared to the first year of the Flu (without the vaccine) or the 5th year of life of one must be compared to the 5th year of life for the other with similarly available medications for both. This makes the true R0 value (spreadability) difficult to determine right now — it is like having a 3 month old with ADHD and no meds compare to a 55 year old world traveler on CBD and Valium.
What is the Best Way to Determine Accurate R0 Numbers for a Virulent Disease?
Which Flu virus strains are included in the current R0 value for the “Flu” or do the statisticians even know? Do we have accurate numbers from China regarding Covid 19 morbidity or do we need to scrap what we got from them and start over with Europe? People were talking about a Wuhan pneumonia a while ago and citizens of Hong Kong were calling it the #Chinese_Disease before Trump did?
Is China Being Transparent?
Covid 19 Numbers
If China’s numbers are accurate, as of today per WHO (The World Health Organization started by the United Nations), 266,073 people worldwide are known to be infected with Covid 19 and there are 11,184 deaths as of the typing of this post … that is a 4% death rate without a vaccine. Also, Patient Zero, which is China is now reporting 0 new cases after just 3.5 months with no vaccine!!! We haven’t even done that with the Flu.
For almost 2 months only one section of one country (China), with a unique culture was affected and they make up about 1/3 of the deaths to date.
Of the 3-5 million severe ANNUAL cases of Flu WORLDWIDE per WHO there were 290K – 650K worldwide deaths, that is 13% death rate using the upper end numbers and comparing only severe cases (even with available vaccines). There are a total of 1 billion TOTAL estimated flu cases (keep in mind, WHO says ESTIMATED and has NO way to confirm this) which would completely change the death rate to less than .001%, HOWEVER severe cases are more likely to have accurate numbers due to medical documentation so I’m sticking with 13%.
How Does Culture and Population Density Affect the Numbers?
Equations involving people are very complicated due to the nature of humans. Cultural practices, diet, medical care, resources and hygiene as well as people density and vaccine availability play a huge role in the spread of viruses so the R0 value for a disease can be different in different countries or different within a specific country as in how an R0 value could vary in rural Utah compared to Atlanta, GA.
Whatever the case, the Corona family of viruses (cousins, sisters, brothers and friends) will change life as we know it going forward; or will it? Covid 19 is a new kid on the block and is getting a lot of press so everyone is scared, like when HIV came out, but where is the press about the 650,000 other Flu deaths?
I’m Not a Conspiracy Theorist, But….
With all the hooplah, we need to know what is going on. A few explanations are:
Conspiracy Theory #1
This whole thing is a pandemic drill and the loss of a projected 30,000 worldwide compared to a population of seven billion is a small price to pay for a trained population; especially when most victims are over 60 and social security costs are so high. Additionally, most countries would lose fewer people to car accidents and the regular flu due to extra precautions taken by all and quarantines so this would balance the losses. And each country who knew about the planned drill would stand to make a lot of money in markets with a week’s advance notice of all happenings. Nothing like bad news and scared people to crash the markets. A planned disaster is a good way to earn money to fund other things like Space Force, perhaps.
Conspiracy Theory #2
China was trying to clean up their aged population and things didn’t go so well. The nation has been complaining of the cost of care for the aged population and everyone over 60 was required to take the flu vaccine in 2019 so they had to know quite a few of them would get sick. I mean you are pumping the virus into aged people’s blood.
Conspiracy Theory #3
We could always blame Russia. Hey, why not….we always do.
They’ve been very quiet lately with only 253 cases and a whopping 0 deaths….yes, I said zero. Maybe they have a vaccine. Maybe they are working with China who agreed to lose a few old people in order to take out populations in Europe and America to weaken non communist nations. The virus seems to be affecting western nations a bit differently than eastern ones and it is always better to kill two birds with one stone….that is, if you are into killing wildlife.
Wait a minute…wait a minute! What am I talking about! The monthly deaths of .00005% of the world population is so much worse than our usual .0007% and the government and media are right to scare the hell out of everyone. Hmmmm. That doesn’t make sense either.
Oh well, I have got to be missing a key piece of info so if one of you has it and can correct me, please leave a comment.